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Relative Value-at-Risk (Relative VaR)

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Suppose we want to derive the (relative) portfolio Value-at-Risk (relative VaR) when returns  on the  exposures are jointly Gaussian, assuming that the corresponding portfolio weights are  and corresponding benchmark weights are .

 

By jointly Gaussian we mean that the vector of returns  is distributed as a multivariate normal distribution , where  is a vector of mean returns and  is a covariance matrix.

 

A property of any -dimensional Gaussian, i.e. multivariate Normal, distribution that can be derived relatively simply from the probability density function of such a distribution is that if  and if we have a constant vector  then  is univariate Normal  for some  and . Specifically:

 

 

where the  are the elements of the covariance matrix .

 

By relative return we mean the return on the portfolio relative to the return on the benchmark. For any given time period the return on the portfolio is the weight the portfolio ascribes to the exposure times the return on that exposure, i.e. is , where  is a vector with components . Likewise the return on the benchmark is is , where is a vector with components . So the relative return* is . Hence the relative return is distributed as a univariate Normal distribution with  and . The relative VaR with confidence level  is then  with these  and , where  is the inverse Normal function.

 

 

* N.B. there is an assumption here that the returns over the relevant time interval are small, otherwise there is an issue about whether to use arithmetic relative or geometric relatives etc., see e.g. Relative Return Computations).

 


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