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Fat Tails and Extreme Events - A presentation on Malcolm Kemp's book "Extreme Events: Robust Portfolio Construction in the Presence of Fat Tails"


This presentation summarises material in the author's book 'Extreme Events: Robust Portfolio Construction in the Presence of Fat Tails'. Chapter titles include:
1. Introduction
2. Fat tails – in single (i.e. univariate) return series
3. Fat tails – in joint (i.e. multivariate) return series
4. Identifying factors that significantly influence markets
5. Traditional portfolio construction techniques
6. Robust mean-variance portfolio construction
7. Regime switching and time-varying risk and return parameters
8. Stress testing
9. Really extreme events

[as pdf]

Slides
1Asset Allocation Workshop
2Underlying thesis
3Extreme Events: Robust Portfolio Construction in the Presence of Fat Tails
4Selected highlights from “Extreme Events”
5Modelling fat tails for individual risks
6Many (most?) investment return series are ‘fat-tailed’
7Why are return series often fat-tailed?
8Explains some equity index fat fails, particularly upside
9And over longer time periods
10Crowded trades and leverage
11Extreme Value Theory (EVT)
12Potential weaknesses
13Selected highlights from “Extreme Events”
14Joint fat-tailed behaviour
15Copulas: a well trodden (mathematical) path
16But extreme behaviour shows up better in QQ plots
17Selected highlights from “Extreme Events”
18Factor identification
19Fundamental data limitations
20Selection effects
21PCA vs. ICA
22Selection effects are potentially very important
23Selection effects: do they occur in practice?
24Selected highlights from “Extreme Events”
25Portfolio construction
26Portfolio construction: sensitivities
27Impact of fat tails (1)
28Impact of fat tails (2)
29Other approaches
30Selected highlights from “Extreme Events”
31Stress testing
32Observations
33Really extreme events
34Extreme Events: Robust Portfolio Construction in the Presence of Fat Tails
35Important Information



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