Stress testing incorporating causal dependency [8]

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Bullet points include: However, we may think that we (or experts we employ) know something when we (they) don’t, e.g. biases listed by Montier (2007): Overconfidence and overoptimism: I know better because I know more Size bias: assuming big = important Confirmatory bias: seeing what you want to see Self-attribution bias: “heads was skill, tails was bad luck” Hindsight bias: “I knew it all along” Anchoring: an irrelevant value/factor influences where we pitch the answer Representativeness bias: judging by appearances not likelihoods Recency effect: preferentially remembering the recent past Framing: how we are asked the question can influence the answer we give The status quo and endowment effect: once you have something you may start to put a higher value on it than others

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