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Foundation ERM Session 5: Credit Risk
This presentation is based on a part of an academic course on Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) titled ‘Credit Risk’ and covers topics such as: what is ‘credit’ risk and recent market developments in credit markets, credit portfolio risk models (including ratings-based models, equity-based models and mixture models) and issues with any type of model
Slides
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Session 5: Credit Risk
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Session 5: Credit Risk
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What is credit risk?
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Market developments
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Implications of new credit markets
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Credit portfolio risk models
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Credit portfolio risk models - typical uses
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Credit portfolio risk models - basic structure
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Session 5: Credit Risk
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Ratings-based models
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Ratings-based models: components
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Component 1: transition matrix
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Example Moody’s transition matrix
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Component 2: Spreads and interest rates
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Example spreads
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Valuation at horizon if no default
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Component 3: Valuation in defaulted state
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Component 4: Correlations / joint distribution
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Ordered probit approach
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Correlations for latent variables
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Example
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Example factor correlations
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Pros and cons of ratings based models
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Session 5: Credit Risk
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Equity-based credit portfolio risk models
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Equity and debt as options on asset value
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Pricing equity and debt as options
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More realistic default behaviour
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Implementing an equity-based credit risk model
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Implementing model statistically
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Default trigger
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Strengths and weaknesses of equity-based models
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Session 5: Credit Risk
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Mixture models (1)
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Mixture models (2)
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Session 5: Credit Risk
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Implementation issues for either type of model
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Broader issues
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Important Information
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